This study, together with the parallel study on the wage structure, marked the beginning of our work for the Minimum Wage Commission. It analysed the short-term effects of the introduction of the minimum wage on 1 January 2015 on employment, unemployment and working hours up to 2016. The analysis combined three data sources: official regional-level data, individual-level survey data, and administrative data linking firms and employees. Several variants of the difference-in-differences approach were used. In the short term, the employment effects remained small. The negative effect on total employment was statistically significant but small, and almost entirely attributable to the decline in marginal employment. The minimum wage had no effect on employment subject to social insurance contributions or on unemployment. The decline in mini-jobs was explained mainly by markedly fewer entries, while at the same time, in these first two years, marginal jobs were more often converted into jobs subject to social insurance contributions. The adjustments in working hours were more pronounced: for employees subject to social insurance contributions, contractually agreed working hours fell by around five per cent, or 1.5 hours per week, in the first half of 2015.
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